There's reason for optimism in Greater Victoria's real estate sector, as a sense of stability is returning after what felt like truly turbulent times.
"Mortgage rates have levelled out, inventory is slowly creeping back up, and we are no longer in that highly pressurized market of recent years which created complicated and sometimes stressful conditions for buyers and sellers," Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Laurie Lidstone said in the organization's latest news release. "If balanced conditions continue, buyers and sellers will have more time to make decisions and there will be less pressure on pricing. Of course, there are many factors that impact the market here in Victoria, and, as we've seen in the past, things can change very rapidly." The real estate board had 2,140 active listings for sale at the end of January, a 23.1% increase from 12 months ago. The benchmark value for a single family home in January was about $1.24 million, down from December's value of $1.27 million. The benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core in January was $559,000, down from the December value of $562,000. Understanding economic trends is invaluable to helping businesses plan for the future. The Chamber relies on a number of sources for information and analysis, including our national network.
On Tuesday, Canadian Chamber Chief Economist Stephen Tapp provided members of The Chamber's Public Policy and Advocacy Committee with his insights. "We're fortunate to have access to a deep pool of experts who help us make effective use of our advocacy efforts," Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. "The Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce has a long history as Western Canada's first chamber and we continue to play an active role with the Canadian Chamber." Tapp spoke about the state of the economy and expectations for interest rate cuts, using the latest numbers from the Business Data Lab. Click the image to view Tapp's presentation. For information on joining a Chamber committee, go to victoriachamber.ca/committees for contact info. Canada is a trading nation, and many businesses in Greater Victoria provide goods and services to an international customer base. Building connections across borders is vital to helping business operate as smoothly as possible.
On Monday, the Chamber welcomed Vancouver-based US Consulate General Jim DeHart to Victoria. "I've spoken with Mr. DeHart during trade missions in the past and he's always expressed an interest in learning more about Greater Victoria and Vancouver Island," Chamber CEO Bruce WIlliams said. "I'm glad we were able to host him for a roundtable with some of our region's business leaders for a discussion on trade and cross-border relations." Topics covered an array of interests, including labour force mobility, credential recognition and ongoing efforts to streamline regulations. Investing in celebrations of sports, arts, culture and farming helps build great communities. The economic return also benefits many tourism and hospitality businesses — a sector that is still recovering from the pandemic and the current slowdown in consumer spending.
The Chamber continues to be a vocal advocate for this sector, and we applaud this morning's news that the BC Fairs, Festivals and Events fund is being extended. “The BCFFE program single-handedly saved our business and that of many of our colleagues here in BC," 17 Black Events executive director Scott Gurney said. "The program has also ensured that businesses within BC’s live event ecosystem, like specialty service providers, suppliers and rental companies, have been able to survive, too. The impact of this program reaches far and wide with its economic outcomes, but more importantly, from a social point of view, it has ensured that British Columbians have continued access to arts, culture and live events.” Events between April 1, 2024, and Sept. 30, 2025, are eligible for funding to cover expenses ranging from operational costs, Indigenous consultation and honorariums, to venue rental, marketing, wages and promotion. Applications are being accepted until 11:59 pm, Feb. 25. Organizations are encouraged to submit their applications as soon as possible. “We are extremely grateful for the past two years of BCFFE funding," Rifflandia Entertainment Company president and CEO Nick Blasco said. "Suffice to say, the program has been essential to the growth and future of our festival and so many others throughout the province.” The Secondary Suites Incentive Program, introduced to all BC municipalities last fall, is being expanded to 16 regional districts, including the Capital Regional District.
“We’re using innovative solutions to make it easier for homeowners and communities to build homes faster, so people can live and work in the communities they love,” BC Minister of Housing Ravi Kahlon said in a news release. The three-year pilot SSIP will provide about 3,000 homeowners with forgivable loans for as much as $40,000 to create a new secondary suite or an accessory dwelling unit on their property. To qualify, the units must be rented below market rates for at least five years. In a separate news release, Kahlon also announced that the province issued a request for proposals that could lead to BC adopting an innovative housing solution used in places such as Seattle and New York City. A common practice in Europe, the solution involves allowing single staircases in residential buildings by updating an 80-year-old rule in BC's building code that currently requires two stairwells. The change would allow for larger apartments with more daylight, cross breezes and greenspaces. "The Chamber encourages all levels of government to embrace innovations that allow builders to provide the housing supply we need," Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. "Looking at how other places in the world have solved the same issue we face makes sense." The Chamber is following up on concerns expressed by local post-secondaries facing a serious and unanticipated financial burden from the surprise federal announcement to cap the international student program.
Yesterday, the organization representing Canadian schools sent a joint letter to federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller. "We urge your department not to impose the letter of attestation requirement for college and undergraduate study permit applications until at least March 31 or until the provinces establish an effective process," the letter from Universities Canada and Colleges and Institutes Canada stated. "Additionally, we request urgent consultations with the sector to modify the cap policy, clarify the many outstanding questions and mitigate the negative impacts." On Monday, BC announced new regulations that will constrict the number of international students in the province. Of BC's 545,000 post-secondary students, 175,000 are from 150 countries other than Canada. "After speaking with our members impacted by these changes, The Chamber is concerned that this policy is being presented as a solution to the housing crisis when it will significantly reduce revenue needed by schools," Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. "A better solution is to invest in more on-campus housing so that schools continue to provide the workforce our economy needs, while creating a pathway for foreign students to become taxpaying new Canadians." British Columbia's population is expected to reach 7.9 million by 2046, with Greater Victoria accounting for 655,000 people. Overall, the province is getting older than the rest of Canada, with a lower fertility rate, according to a BC Stats report released yesterday.
BC's current population is 5.58 million, with about 450,000 living in the Capital Regional District. The province's annual growth rate of 3.3% is the highest since 1972. The growth is from historic levels of international immigration as 66,190 people from outside Canada settled in BC. However, the province also experienced a net loss in people migrating within Canada as 4,634 more people left for other provinces than moved here. A new report offers insight into how shifting consumer behaviours are changing the way small businesses operate post pandemic.
On Monday, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s Business Data Lab released A Portrait of Small Business in Canada: Adaption, Agility, All At Once. The findings shed light on how businesses can thrive despite the rising cost of doing business, the highest borrowing costs in over two decades and the increased pandemic debt loads. Examples for businesses include investing in technology, staying agile to embrace shifting trends and working with their chamber to call for less red tape from government. The report also explores the unique realities, challenges and opportunities for small businesses owned by women, persons with disabilities, members of the LGBTQ2s+ community, immigrants to Canada, Indigenous peoples and visible minorities. There can be no doubt about it, Greater Victoria loves hockey. That was on full display last week as the many communities that have a connection to the sport came together for a celebration of Canada’s game.
Scotiabank Hockey Day in Canada was a major success, raising community spirits and bringing activity to businesses downtown and across the region. The mid-January festival took place over four days last week, with the official "hockey day" bringing 20,000 people to Ship Point in the Inner Harbour on Saturday. "We heard reports that it was like a summer day for tourism," Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said, noting that $100,000 was raised for the Courtnall Society for Mental Health. The impact on tourism is still being assessed, as more than nine million Canadians saw images and stories of Greater Victoria during a full-day of NHL broadcasts on Sportsnet. “Civic pride was the big thing here,” Williams told the Times Colonist. “We were successful because people came together and really celebrated the game we love so much.” The Chamber was among many organizations that stepped up to sponsor the event. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% on a year-over-year basis in December, following a 3.1% increase in November. The increase adds a little more uncertainty to what the Bank of Canada will do at its next interest rate announcement on Jan. 25.
Some of the reasons for the acceleration in inflation include higher costs for airfares, fuel oil, passenger vehicles and rent. Prices for food rose 4.7% year over year in December. After months of planning and preparation, Scotiabank Hockey Day in Canada kicked off with an incredible night of storytelling. The Legends of Broadcasting event, held Tuesday night at the Bayview Presentation Centre, saw an awestruck crowd watch Ron MacLean host a panel discussion with Jim Robson, Bernie Pascall, Jim Laing and Tim Ryan.
Stories about chopping trees with Muhammad Ali, the eternal debate between Gretzky vs. Orr and being the voice behind some of the most iconic broadcasts in Canadian sports history brought cheers and laughter. Unfortunately, snowy weather caused Wednesday morning's activities with school kids to be cancelled. However, the Skate with the Stanley Cup and the Player Draft for Friday's Alumni and Celebrity Classic were still able to go ahead. Go to victoriahockeyday.ca for the latest on events and activities happening this week. Greater Victoria's unemployment rate of 4.1% in December was unchanged from November 2023. According to Statistics Canada, the region's population increased to 367,400 from 366,700 over the month.
Our local labour force was also up with 244,700 people in December compared to 242,900 in November. The stats reflect the national trend as employment growth slowed in the second half of 2023 with population growth outpacing the number of new jobs added to the economy. "The momentum in the labour market is weakening alongside the fastest population growth in more than 50 years," Canadian Chamber Senior Economist Andrew DiCapua stated in a news release. "With essentially flat job growth in December, the Canadian labour market ends 2023 with over 5% wage growth and an unemployment rate steady at 5.8%. Although hours worked rose for the month, this will be a drag on fourth quarter GDP as we round out the year. This signals to the Bank of Canada that the guise of a strong labour market is cracking amid strong labour force gains. With wages accelerating, the Bank was wise to not celebrate at their last meeting, possibly delaying their intentions to begin rate cuts." Property owners, check your mail. You can expect to receive your 2024 assessment notice any day now. The assessments reflect market value as of July 1, 2023, and can also be viewed at bcassessment.ca.
“For 2024, most homeowners can expect generally flat values including a mix of small decreases or only modest increases, reflecting the softening real estate market," Vancouver Island Deputy Assessor Matthew Butterfield stated in a news release. "Homeowners throughout Vancouver Island will generally see somewhere in the range of -5% to +5% change in assessment values." Total assessments for Vancouver Island properties were more than $386 billion this year, up about $1 billion from 2023. Assessments are not directly connected to any change in your property taxes, as those are set according to the needs of the municipality your property is in. However, if your property's value changed relative to other properties, you might see a change in your tax bill. In Greater Victoria, every municipality experienced a drop in the assessed value of a "typical home," including the examples below: Never bet against the ingenuity of small business, especially when entrepreneurs and employers work together.
The Chamber was among 240 organizations that sounded the alarm last year about the looming Jan. 19 deadline for the Canada Emergency Business Account. The federal government has committed to reviewing, on a case by case basis, the circumstances of businesses still struggling to pay back their loan. However, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce reports that more than three-quarters of businesses that accessed the loan were able to repay in time. Additionally, a company specializing in small business financing recently announced it has secured $300 million to help businesses that need to refinance their CEBA loans. BC-based Merchant Growth is working with financial advisor Raymond James to help businesses that need to refinance their CEBA loans. "Help is available for businesses who continue to be impacted by the effects of the pandemic and the rise in inflation and interest rates," Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. "If you're ever facing a situation where you are not sure what to do, please know that The Chamber is here for you and we will do everything in our power to help." The New Year marked the start of new rules for Canada's Pension Plan. The change introduces a second earnings ceiling for middle-income earners making more than $73,200.
For employers, this means changes to the amount they need to withhold for eligible employees. And for the self-employed, the changes impact CPP contributions based on net income. The federal government says the enhancement will increase the maximum CPP retirement pension by about 50% for people who have recently entered the workforce. In 2023, generative artificial intelligence was suddenly everywhere. It's showing up in business software applications, Internet search functions and standalone apps that enable even non-technical users to overcome writing, coding and design challenges.
To help businesses benefit by adopting AI responsibly, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce held an AI Executive Summit on Nov. 22. Among the key themes that emerged were:
The themes will guide the work of the recently formed Future of AI Council, a 30-member forum representing a cross-section of organizations. The council "will play a leading role in advocating for government policies that establish AI as a positive economic force through the responsible development, deployment and ethical use of AI in business." New housing on campus at the University of Victoria is helping ease pressure on the region's rental market.
A residence opened in September, providing 385 single rooms for first-year students. UVic guarantees on-campus housing to help new students acclimate to university life. A lounge for Indigenous students also opened as part of the multi-stage project, which will add 621 new beds and 162 replacement beds, increasing on-campus housing by 25%. The Songhees Nation gave UVic permission to use lək̓ʷəŋən names for the new buildings to honour the territory on which the buildings stand. The first residence, Čeqʷəŋín ʔéʔləŋ (Cheko'nien House), is named after what is now known as Oak Bay, while Sŋéqə ʔéʔləŋ (Sngequ House) is named after a village located in what is now known as Cadboro Bay. The Chamber has been a vocal advocate for the on-campus housing to help free up rental units for our regional workforce. A report by Deloitte Canada released this week offers an insightful look into how housing plays a direct role in our economic productivity. Specifically, the report examines housing "not entirely governed by the laws of supply and demand."
The report calls this "community housing," which includes co-ops, non-market homes, social housing and lower-cost market rentals. Among the findings is that housing affordability in Canada is at its lowest point since 1990. Canada is also facing a problem with lagging productivity and we need to find ways to boost output without causing inflation to rise. Through its research, Deloitte found adding community housing to a region supports economic development and productivity. Community housing had been a much more prevalent part of home construction until the 1980s. After several decades of little investment in this type of housing, more units are now being built — though they still represent a relatively small share of total stock being added. The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation recently reported that Canada needs 3.5 million new homes by 2030 to achieve affordability. Deloitte's report concluded that government investment in community housing will help meet this demand and boost our economy's potential output growth. "If Canada’s community housing units as a share of total housing units were to increase from 2023 Q2’s level of 5.5% to 7% by 2030 this would require an increase of 371,600 units in Canada’s total community housing net stock," Deloitte's report stated. For BC, this would equate to 50,870 additional units by 2030 — a 42% increase from 2023 levels. Doing so would increase provincial productivity by up to 9.3% adding $25 billion to BC's GDP. After years of flirting with football fans in Atlantic Canada, the CFL is turning its attention to the West Coast. The first Touchdown Pacific game will take place at Royal Athletic Park on Aug. 31 between the BC Lions and Ottawa Redblacks.
“As a lifelong fan of the CFL, I am thrilled to welcome Touchdown Pacific to Victoria," City of Victoria Mayor Marianne Alto said in the news release. "The passionate fans in our community, combined with our historic natural grass stadium, will make this Labour Day contest a classic football match, and a highlight of the 2024 CFL season, with family-friendly festivities beforehand.” The stadium, which serves as the home of the Victoria HarbourCats, will be expanded to hold up to 14,000 fans, including standing room. In 2023, Touchdown Atlantic generated more than $10 million in overall economic impact for businesses and communities in the Halifax region. In Greater Victoria, sports tourism helps drive more than $100 million in visitor spending annually. Destination Greater Victoria and the Greater Victoria Sport Tourism Commission were key in bringing Touchdown Pacific to Victoria. The provincial government released its Q2 fiscal update on Tuesday, calling for a smaller deficit than previously forecast. The difference is due to bringing in more revenue from personal and corporate income taxes as well as $358 million in federal funding for wildfire recovery.
BC's Second Quarterly Report now projects a $5.6-billion operating deficit this year, and an improved debt-to-GDP ratio of 17%. Next week, BC's Minister of Finance is scheduled to meet with the Economic Forecast Council to discuss next year's budget, which will be released on Feb. 22. Traditionally, the minister addresses members of the Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce shortly after budget day. Among other highlights in the Q2 report were:
The federal government's much-anticipated fall economic statement was released yesterday, Nov. 21. There were few surprises from a government that has little room left to spend and a tepid economic environment to work with.
"(The federal government) followed a highly stimulative fiscal framework following the pandemic, from which they had not significantly withdrawn as the economy hit its capacity in the past two years. That forced the Bank of Canada to apply even more restrictive monetary policy to offset the effects of the government’s stimulative impulses, akin to pushing the brake and gas pedals at the same time," the Conference Board of Canada said in its analysis. "Let us hope that the two policymaking bodies can begin to row in the same direction in the future as inflation pressures subside. Interest rates will likely be coming down next year, but negative federal fiscal balances also need to be pushed back toward neutral territory at a greater pace." There are some positives for business as the statement included proposals to ensure open access to markets, fewer taxes on mental health support and relief for mortgage holders at risk from higher interest rates. The government also earmarked $15 billion for rental home construction, though there are no details on how the funds will deliver 30,000 new units as promised. Consultations have begun on the 2024 federal budget and The Chamber will work with our national network to give members a voice in the process. It's a strange time for the real estate industry, which is a major contributor to Greater Victoria's economy. The winter typically brings a slow down, but high interest rates and uncertainty about the future are chilling activity in our region and across the country.
"Overall, property sales drifted down in October compared to the previous month, likely due to consumers continuing to navigate interest rates higher than those seen in nearly two decades," Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Graden Sol said. "The uncertainty around the direction of the Bank of Canada rate announcement in mid-October may have caused some buyers to push their purchasing plans into the future because it was unclear if rates were going to be hiked again or remain stable." VERB said sales were down 15.2% in October compared to the same month last year. Total listings have increased by 25.7% over the same time. Meanwhile, the benchmark value for a single family home in the region's core in October was $1,305,900 — up 3.9% from October 2022. "Greater Victoria typically fares better than many other regions during economic downturns because of our diversity of sectors," Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. "We have a large public sector, for example, that relies on the services and goods of other industries. What we've seen in the past is that those who can, lend support to those in need. This current situation will pass, but let's remember to exercise compassion and kindness in the spirit of supporting our local economy." The Chamber supports efforts to embrace and learn from Indigenous ways of knowing as an opportunity to add resilience and sustainability to our economy.
A conference set for next week in Toronto promises to raise awareness at a national level. Indigenomics on Bay Street, hosted by Chamber member Indigenomics Institute, bills itself as a "gathering to activate value creation in the $100 billion Indigenous economy." The figure represents the changing landscape of Indigenous wealth and influence on policy and business, as identified in a 2019 study. The conference is open to business leaders looking to advance the knowledge, tools and actions needed to activate economic reconciliation. For more information, go to indigenomicsinstitute.com/events/bay-street. The findings of a report released today calculating the cost of living in Greater Victoria is not a surprise.
According to the Community Social Planning Council, the 2023 Living Wage for Greater Victoria is $25.40 per hour. That's $1.11 (4.6%) higher than the 2022 rate of $24.29 per hour. "The Chamber continues to work on helping employers find and keep workers, and one of the biggest challenges for organizations is the impact of labour costs on top of all the other input costs that have gone up over the past year," Chamber CEO Bruce Williams said. "Our members are great employers, but it's not easy passing on higher prices to customers. We need all levels of government to address the root of these rising costs." Annual household expenses for a family of four are up $2,393.29 from 2022. The report, released in partnership with United Way Southern Vancouver Island, cites shelter and food costs as well as non-MSP health expenses for the increase. “Given the pressures of housing and inflation, the rise in the Living Wage is alarming but not totally unexpected,” UWSVI Executive Director Erika Stenson said. “It also provides us — whether we are employers, any level of government, business, or labour—with the incentive to convene and discuss realistic, pragmatic ways to help families in Southern Vancouver Island manage the issues around affordability." Some good news this morning for businesses and households feeling the pinch of higher borrowing costs.
The Bank of Canada kept its target for the overnight rate at 5%, signalling that earlier efforts to cool inflation by slowing the economy are working. Interest rates climbed faster than expected as inflation spiked after a series of global crises. The war in Ukraine, climate events in agricultural areas and disrupted supply chains have been cited for increasing input costs. The central bank said today that it might still raise interest rates further, though some experts say the message is likely more bark than bite. The Conference Board of Canada said that fears of a recession could become a "self-fulfilling prophecy." The Bank of Canada’s recent Survey of Consumer Expectations found that 55% of respondents expect a recession is coming. "It is likely these recession fears are encouraging households to scale back their spending, a finding backed by trends seen in our Index of Consumer Spending and Index of Consumer Confidence," the Conference Board said in its report. "This additional pull-back could give the final nudge to materialize a recession within Canada." |
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